When do you think is the next insurance hard market? And why?
in my year 3to 5 months
In my state (Oklahoma) the market is getting hard now. The cycles are always every 3 to 5 years.
Answers:
Now ...as you know we are in a real Soft market.. Companies are making tons of money on investments and Stocks and can capitalize on a good surplus which in turn creates a lower rate environment and a more competition. Thusly...creates a softer market.
In my 37 years in this business I have been in Hard and soft markets many times.Luv the hard Market though...Better premium and more income AND less competition.. I remember the "longest soft market was in the Reagan era
Economy was good and competition fierce. I think it lasted 8 years. The cycle is based on (2) factors.
1. Economic trends
2. Cat losses.
Last year was a good one for the industry. A lot of companies made money and it shows. The year before it wasn't so Good (katrina). Now the market is doing better and we have our cycle. NOW to answer your question!
When Do I think is the next Hard Market?
Let's see what happens this hurricane season...shall we ...then ask your question again in the winter.